Incorporating phylogeographic information in alien bird distribution models increases geographic extent but not accuracy of predictions

Species distribution models (SDM) have been proposed as valuable first screening tools for predicting species responses to new environmental conditions. SDMs are usually conducted at the level, assuming that species-environment relationships a species-specific feature do not evolve and show no variability across species’ range. However, broad tolerances level can encompass narrower different specific lineages or populations. In this study, we evaluate whether account within-taxon niche variation in climate human-habitat associations provide better fits between projected distributions real occurrence data alien bird than species-level SDMs. Our study focuses on eight with established populations which detailed phylogeographic information was available. Similarity climates human disturbance conditions occupied by phylogenetic groups within low greater random expectations. Accounting intraspecific modified extent of suitable habitat predicted susceptible invasion, but did result more accurate model predictions ranges. Until is available, be reasonable candidates. When use most conservative criterion (i.e. both basis actual range) recommended.